Modeling earthquakes via computer programs

Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. Abstract Modeling earthquakes plays an important role in investigation of different aspects of seismic risk. The paper continues previous studies and describes the user-friendly software destined for numerical simulation of lithosphere dynamics and seismicity by means of different modifications of the block model, which exploits the hierarchical block structure of the lithosphere. As a result, the model produces an earthquake catalog, and the programs give an opportunity to visualize it in different ways. The programs work in an interactive mode with a window interface. Numerical approximation of the Vrancea seismic region is considered as an example of application of the software. Parallel algorithms allowing to perform modeling dynamics of rather large structures are outlined. iv Acknowledgments The described software destined for numerical simulation of lithosphere dynamics appeared as a result of a planned activity within the framework of the IIASA Risk Modeling and Society (RMS) Project. The work has been integrated with RMS studies in modeling natural catastrophes and analyzing insurance strategies. The authors are thankful to Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer and Yuri Ermoliev for fruitful discussions.